* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/21/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 53 45 38 30 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 53 45 38 30 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 53 48 42 38 31 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 9 9 5 4 5 3 5 5 13 21 26 25 SHEAR DIR 170 185 192 215 206 239 256 266 289 255 264 260 247 SST (C) 23.6 23.1 22.8 22.6 22.3 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.8 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 99 93 90 88 84 78 77 76 78 78 78 79 78 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 55 50 50 46 45 41 38 36 33 29 27 25 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 9 8 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 34 45 47 53 52 46 48 45 49 33 16 -15 200 MB DIV -16 -30 -8 0 -4 -16 -2 -24 -21 -18 -8 -28 -27 LAND (KM) 716 773 836 887 940 1044 1139 1247 1397 1476 1557 1668 1730 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.3 23.7 24.2 24.6 25.0 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 117.7 118.7 119.7 120.8 121.8 123.5 124.9 126.4 128.2 129.8 131.6 133.6 134.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 9 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 428 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -22. -30. -36. -40. -42. -44. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 1. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -23. -30. -45. -57. -66. -72. -76. -80. -83. -85. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -15. -22. -30. -45. -58. -67. -73. -77. -81. -83. -86. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/21/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/21/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY