* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * EIGHT EP082008 07/21/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 46 52 57 66 72 74 73 69 66 60 54 V (KT) LAND 35 41 46 52 57 66 72 74 73 69 66 60 54 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 47 50 55 58 61 61 60 57 53 47 SHEAR (KTS) 10 13 14 12 7 8 4 6 5 12 13 18 13 SHEAR DIR 41 32 46 56 46 90 148 140 133 122 106 124 123 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 149 147 143 138 134 130 127 125 122 119 114 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 74 75 74 74 73 71 70 67 65 59 60 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 11 12 12 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 1 9 2 -5 -3 3 2 16 13 16 5 4 9 200 MB DIV 47 52 59 59 50 43 35 62 23 31 -4 20 -4 LAND (KM) 394 436 468 498 541 605 693 785 789 810 854 930 1005 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.4 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.2 17.9 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 101.9 103.1 104.2 105.3 106.4 108.4 110.0 111.4 112.5 113.9 115.5 117.4 119.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 11 11 10 9 7 7 6 8 9 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 29. 35. 37. 38. 34. 31. 25. 18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 17. 22. 31. 37. 39. 38. 34. 31. 25. 19. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 EIGHT 07/21/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 EIGHT 07/21/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY