* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTOBAL AL032008 07/22/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 49 48 44 37 30 25 21 20 18 16 V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 49 48 44 37 30 25 21 20 18 16 V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 48 46 44 40 35 31 28 28 30 31 33 SHEAR (KTS) 2 12 14 17 21 28 33 29 30 27 20 15 11 SHEAR DIR 96 245 232 252 245 243 276 283 294 299 294 288 320 SST (C) 26.8 25.4 22.2 19.4 18.2 16.4 14.9 18.4 22.6 23.8 24.4 24.6 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 124 111 91 81 78 74 71 78 92 96 99 99 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 98 82 75 72 69 68 72 81 82 83 82 80 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.7 -55.4 -55.9 -56.7 -56.8 -56.6 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 1 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 40 42 48 46 48 48 40 39 37 40 36 37 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 14 12 11 10 8 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 33 43 60 37 12 -34 -96 -103 -67 -48 -31 -44 -77 200 MB DIV 5 23 28 35 33 1 -27 -31 -26 -5 -20 -33 0 LAND (KM) 392 360 335 248 215 245 235 568 1016 1313 1431 1562 1588 LAT (DEG N) 37.4 38.7 39.9 41.3 42.7 44.3 44.6 43.3 40.9 38.9 37.6 36.6 36.5 LONG(DEG W) 70.7 69.0 67.2 65.0 62.7 57.9 52.7 47.7 43.3 41.0 40.8 40.0 39.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 19 20 22 21 19 18 20 17 9 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -17. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 13. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -19. -24. -27. -28. -30. -32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -13. -20. -25. -29. -30. -32. -34. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/22/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/22/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY