* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DOLLY AL042008 07/22/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 56 62 64 67 69 69 67 66 63 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 56 62 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 49 52 57 42 31 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 11 3 4 6 5 6 3 9 10 23 17 18 12 SHEAR DIR 176 189 129 148 180 24 285 6 302 351 303 32 63 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 153 148 141 132 130 133 138 140 143 145 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 139 131 124 115 112 114 117 118 119 121 121 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -51.4 -52.6 -52.3 -53.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 6 9 11 8 13 11 16 11 14 9 14 700-500 MB RH 68 65 65 65 67 65 66 65 68 64 62 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 16 15 15 11 10 8 9 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 3 18 25 24 46 41 37 14 5 -25 -45 200 MB DIV 64 43 43 50 48 23 28 -3 59 6 20 -4 -16 LAND (KM) 282 400 352 263 174 36 -95 -200 -283 -356 -367 -355 -363 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.4 24.8 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.4 28.0 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 92.0 93.2 94.3 95.1 95.8 96.9 98.2 99.3 100.2 101.0 101.1 100.9 100.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 66 62 40 25 31 5 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 13. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 20. 23. 26. 26. 24. 22. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 19. 22. 24. 24. 22. 21. 19. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042008 DOLLY 07/22/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042008 DOLLY 07/22/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY