* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/22/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 48 41 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 54 48 41 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 54 49 44 40 32 27 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 2 3 3 5 4 10 8 11 17 23 21 SHEAR DIR 161 189 210 150 184 253 224 303 300 286 269 265 239 SST (C) 23.2 22.8 22.6 22.4 22.2 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.7 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 94 90 87 85 83 79 78 76 77 78 79 78 77 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 50 50 48 47 44 42 35 34 31 29 25 26 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 11 10 9 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 43 45 46 42 41 52 44 53 41 40 14 -19 200 MB DIV -19 0 -8 -10 -12 -4 -18 -12 -11 -4 -12 -2 -11 LAND (KM) 747 806 846 887 933 1038 1188 1303 1414 1516 1573 1641 1668 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.5 22.7 23.1 23.3 23.7 24.1 24.6 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.3 120.2 121.0 121.8 123.5 125.4 126.9 128.2 129.7 131.2 132.8 133.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 453 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -10. -15. -24. -31. -37. -41. -43. -44. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -21. -28. -43. -56. -65. -71. -74. -79. -81. -83. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -12. -19. -27. -41. -54. -63. -70. -74. -79. -81. -83. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/22/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/22/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY