* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/22/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 51 56 64 70 71 68 65 61 59 55 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 51 56 64 70 71 68 65 61 59 55 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 44 48 51 54 55 54 53 51 47 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 9 5 4 7 8 5 7 4 13 11 21 SHEAR DIR 44 33 34 39 62 92 132 138 144 129 112 125 120 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 145 141 139 136 131 126 126 126 125 122 119 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.5 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 76 78 74 73 74 73 71 68 67 65 59 57 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -2 -10 -7 -3 -5 6 4 12 2 3 -13 -4 200 MB DIV 30 49 40 63 56 30 41 20 17 6 0 1 10 LAND (KM) 427 451 503 544 577 668 797 808 834 895 1026 1102 1191 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.2 16.3 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.7 105.9 106.9 107.8 109.7 111.7 113.0 113.8 115.2 117.6 119.5 121.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 9 10 9 8 5 5 9 11 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 17. 24. 29. 32. 31. 29. 25. 22. 18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 16. 21. 29. 35. 36. 33. 30. 26. 24. 20. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/22/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/22/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY