* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTOBAL AL032008 07/22/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 46 43 39 32 26 22 20 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 46 43 39 32 26 22 20 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 48 46 44 42 38 33 30 29 30 32 33 33 SHEAR (KTS) 6 15 19 22 22 25 15 25 24 16 15 22 21 SHEAR DIR 241 234 239 238 240 248 271 295 346 283 254 239 245 SST (C) 25.9 22.6 19.8 19.1 17.6 16.8 16.5 21.9 23.3 24.3 24.6 24.6 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 115 93 82 80 76 74 73 88 95 99 100 99 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 84 76 74 71 70 69 79 82 84 84 82 81 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 -55.2 -56.0 -56.7 -57.1 -57.0 -56.4 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 1 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 43 47 46 47 49 47 37 31 35 34 38 37 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 14 11 10 8 6 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 63 39 17 -25 -63 -113 -96 -58 -47 -61 -97 -140 200 MB DIV 12 31 29 24 4 -3 -31 -37 -15 -37 -37 -37 -18 LAND (KM) 375 349 268 255 207 312 413 759 1103 1351 1491 1614 1649 LAT (DEG N) 38.4 39.8 41.1 42.3 43.4 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.8 38.0 36.9 36.0 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 69.2 67.2 65.1 62.8 60.5 55.6 50.4 46.3 43.3 41.6 40.8 40.0 39.4 STM SPEED (KT) 17 21 21 21 19 18 18 16 13 9 6 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 16 CX,CY: 13/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -18. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -17. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -16. -22. -26. -29. -32. -36. -38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -18. -24. -28. -30. -33. -37. -40. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/22/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/22/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY