* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DOLLY AL042008 07/22/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 51 54 57 62 64 68 74 75 74 72 69 V (KT) LAND 45 47 51 54 57 54 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 50 53 58 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 4 6 7 9 10 1 12 4 8 2 10 11 17 SHEAR DIR 125 100 157 230 289 215 305 289 314 83 359 27 354 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.7 28.2 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 148 142 138 131 131 139 148 151 151 151 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 139 131 125 120 114 114 123 130 130 127 127 130 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 9 11 8 11 11 12 11 12 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 67 64 66 63 64 65 70 70 72 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 15 12 11 12 8 5 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 9 13 30 35 29 45 48 51 64 49 34 25 6 200 MB DIV 50 52 59 43 45 35 10 30 54 32 28 37 18 LAND (KM) 393 362 262 197 132 -9 -124 -300 -504 -356 -289 -267 -200 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.6 24.0 24.5 24.9 25.6 26.1 26.2 26.1 25.7 25.3 25.1 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 93.3 94.3 95.2 95.7 96.2 97.4 98.5 100.3 102.5 104.1 104.6 104.7 105.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 6 6 6 6 9 9 5 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 62 46 27 25 32 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -3. -7. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 18. 20. 24. 30. 32. 31. 29. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 12. 17. 19. 23. 29. 30. 29. 27. 24. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042008 DOLLY 07/22/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042008 DOLLY 07/22/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY