* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/22/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 53 57 63 67 67 64 59 54 48 44 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 53 57 63 67 67 64 59 54 48 44 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 46 48 51 53 55 54 51 47 42 37 SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 8 6 8 3 5 9 11 12 19 23 22 SHEAR DIR 24 36 37 41 62 73 171 154 143 122 122 129 120 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 141 138 136 132 128 124 122 120 119 119 119 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 77 76 73 72 73 71 71 66 66 59 58 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -18 -17 -7 -2 -8 -1 -14 -6 -22 -19 -53 -38 200 MB DIV 29 34 51 52 52 20 31 22 -1 4 22 -7 17 LAND (KM) 438 467 503 534 565 659 729 734 779 868 947 1026 1167 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.6 106.5 107.4 108.2 110.0 111.2 112.7 114.2 115.8 117.2 118.9 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 20. 24. 25. 23. 19. 13. 7. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 17. 23. 27. 27. 24. 19. 14. 8. 4. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/22/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/22/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY