* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTOBAL AL032008 07/22/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 50 47 39 32 26 24 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 54 52 50 47 39 32 26 24 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 53 50 46 40 35 33 33 35 36 37 37 SHEAR (KTS) 15 18 31 26 33 28 26 31 26 27 26 17 20 SHEAR DIR 248 236 244 245 249 286 288 300 299 317 291 268 255 SST (C) 22.0 19.2 18.2 17.4 16.2 15.8 18.7 22.5 23.6 24.0 24.0 23.7 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 90 80 78 76 73 72 78 91 96 97 97 96 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 75 72 71 69 69 72 80 84 83 82 82 78 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -55.9 -56.3 -56.6 -57.2 -57.7 -58.0 -58.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 48 49 49 50 44 38 35 30 32 31 33 33 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 10 8 6 6 5 2 2 4 850 MB ENV VOR 58 30 12 -30 -49 -108 -95 -77 -43 -37 -45 -63 -89 200 MB DIV 28 34 4 5 -6 -39 -47 -39 -18 -37 -29 -43 -19 LAND (KM) 328 242 212 194 231 289 566 909 1244 1488 1638 1724 1758 LAT (DEG N) 40.0 41.4 42.7 43.6 44.4 44.1 43.1 41.5 39.3 38.1 37.9 38.4 40.1 LONG(DEG W) 67.2 65.0 62.8 60.4 58.0 53.0 48.0 44.3 41.6 39.2 37.1 35.3 33.3 STM SPEED (KT) 20 21 20 19 18 18 17 15 13 9 8 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 22 CX,CY: 16/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -18. -21. -23. -22. -22. -22. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -6. -14. -21. -27. -30. -34. -39. -42. -44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -23. -29. -31. -35. -40. -44. -46. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/22/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/22/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY