* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DOLLY AL042008 07/22/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 66 69 73 75 78 81 78 74 72 69 64 V (KT) LAND 55 60 66 69 73 52 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 64 68 70 52 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 5 2 7 9 10 4 6 4 16 6 14 11 22 SHEAR DIR 86 139 237 287 347 269 9 289 3 320 39 23 39 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.5 28.0 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 150 143 138 134 129 136 142 145 148 147 145 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 134 127 121 116 112 119 123 124 124 123 121 118 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.2 -51.9 -51.0 -51.8 -51.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 10 8 8 13 10 15 11 14 9 14 9 700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 64 65 65 64 69 66 69 60 59 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 16 17 13 13 12 9 5 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 3 22 29 26 26 49 62 53 25 37 0 -11 -38 200 MB DIV 53 61 47 40 40 31 0 43 -10 12 4 -13 -19 LAND (KM) 387 292 195 125 54 -67 -239 -381 -485 -423 -437 -482 -482 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.1 24.5 25.0 25.4 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.9 95.7 96.3 96.8 97.9 99.7 101.2 102.3 103.4 103.3 102.9 103.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 6 8 6 5 2 1 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 52 28 25 32 11 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 14. 15. 14. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -4. -7. -11. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 17. 19. 22. 26. 25. 22. 20. 17. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 14. 18. 20. 23. 26. 23. 19. 17. 14. 9. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042008 DOLLY 07/22/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042008 DOLLY 07/22/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY