* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL972008 07/22/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 29 32 35 37 40 41 44 47 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 29 32 35 37 40 41 44 47 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 28 29 31 33 36 40 SHEAR (KTS) 11 8 9 11 9 11 20 20 18 13 15 13 10 SHEAR DIR 140 155 177 211 205 220 232 220 248 195 238 190 226 SST (C) 24.7 23.6 23.7 24.2 24.4 24.4 25.0 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.5 27.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 104 98 99 102 104 103 108 113 114 115 119 126 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 94 96 100 101 100 104 107 106 106 109 114 119 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 73 72 69 71 65 59 54 52 51 50 46 40 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR 90 72 57 70 75 72 67 62 48 32 10 -7 -14 200 MB DIV 20 14 15 11 5 -8 -21 -10 -2 -7 1 18 13 LAND (KM) 339 522 708 913 1120 1533 1919 2188 2057 2028 2049 2010 1907 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.4 18.7 19.3 19.9 21.0 22.2 23.7 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 20.2 21.9 23.6 25.6 27.5 31.4 35.2 38.6 41.3 43.5 45.5 47.2 48.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 18 19 19 18 17 15 12 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 14 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 20. 23. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 20. 21. 24. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 20. 21. 24. 27. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 07/22/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)