* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/22/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 30 27 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 3 0 3 0 2 8 4 8 12 18 23 30 SHEAR DIR 126 123 76 53 15 283 314 291 283 250 241 222 235 SST (C) 23.3 23.1 22.8 22.4 22.2 21.8 21.7 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 95 93 90 85 83 79 78 80 81 81 82 83 82 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 47 43 43 40 39 36 34 31 30 26 23 20 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 61 55 56 52 58 57 62 51 48 15 -2 -40 200 MB DIV -4 -22 -19 1 -7 -9 3 -8 -12 -17 1 -28 -16 LAND (KM) 932 982 1026 1069 1117 1226 1361 1498 1618 1683 1783 1886 1924 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.5 21.7 22.2 22.5 22.9 23.1 23.5 23.8 24.2 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 120.3 121.2 122.1 123.0 123.8 125.5 127.2 128.9 130.5 132.1 133.9 135.7 137.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -20. -24. -26. -27. -27. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. 5. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -7. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -24. -36. -45. -49. -52. -53. -56. -58. -61. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -12. -18. -24. -36. -45. -52. -54. -53. -54. -56. -58. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/22/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/22/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY