* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTOBAL AL032008 07/22/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 45 42 38 30 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 48 45 42 38 30 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 47 45 42 39 34 31 30 31 33 33 33 33 SHEAR (KTS) 19 26 33 28 31 26 27 27 29 20 22 14 19 SHEAR DIR 241 248 254 264 263 283 284 305 313 301 282 302 335 SST (C) 19.1 18.2 16.6 16.1 14.9 18.0 22.0 22.9 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.2 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 81 78 75 74 72 77 89 92 98 97 97 97 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 75 73 70 70 68 71 79 79 83 81 80 82 80 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -55.8 -56.6 -57.0 -57.4 -57.1 -57.2 -56.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 44 44 47 47 44 38 35 34 29 31 29 31 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 12 12 11 8 8 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 11 -15 -30 -53 -89 -56 -36 -37 -70 -94 -135 -111 200 MB DIV 38 7 -7 -11 -13 -27 -25 0 -50 -25 -56 -33 -10 LAND (KM) 226 228 219 272 222 542 931 1215 1410 1554 1621 1610 1572 LAT (DEG N) 41.7 42.9 44.1 44.4 44.7 43.4 41.9 40.1 38.3 37.2 36.9 37.5 38.9 LONG(DEG W) 64.2 61.6 58.9 56.1 53.2 48.0 43.5 41.1 40.2 39.3 38.6 38.0 37.0 STM SPEED (KT) 24 23 21 21 20 19 16 11 8 5 3 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 47/ 26 CX,CY: 19/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -17. -19. -19. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -13. -21. -25. -28. -32. -35. -40. -43. -45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -8. -12. -20. -25. -29. -34. -38. -43. -45. -47. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/22/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/22/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY