* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DOLLY AL042008 07/22/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 70 75 77 78 81 80 76 73 68 63 58 V (KT) LAND 60 66 70 75 59 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 66 71 74 60 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 5 7 8 3 1 9 6 17 8 16 21 19 24 SHEAR DIR 159 235 294 331 99 345 36 10 6 330 8 35 76 SST (C) 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.3 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 143 136 131 129 131 140 145 148 151 149 147 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 128 119 113 111 114 122 125 127 126 125 122 119 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 9 9 11 12 13 13 13 9 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 68 69 62 68 69 66 69 67 70 66 64 60 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 16 15 12 13 10 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 23 20 23 36 41 46 37 26 9 -6 -29 -19 200 MB DIV 53 44 32 21 24 21 28 18 21 34 20 20 0 LAND (KM) 279 183 86 22 -38 -145 -315 -457 -445 -371 -400 -452 -452 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.8 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 94.9 95.7 96.5 97.1 97.6 98.7 100.5 102.0 103.2 104.2 103.9 103.4 103.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 7 6 5 6 8 6 5 2 2 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 22 28 23 2 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -3. -6. -10. -12. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 16. 18. 21. 21. 18. 16. 11. 6. 1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 10. 15. 17. 18. 21. 20. 16. 13. 8. 3. -2. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042008 DOLLY 07/22/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042008 DOLLY 07/22/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY