* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FAUSTO EP072008 07/22/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 2 1 1 3 3 10 7 12 16 23 29 36 N/A SHEAR DIR 198 15 64 266 315 317 325 274 261 249 246 240 N/A SST (C) 22.6 22.3 22.0 21.8 21.6 21.5 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.8 21.8 22.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 88 84 81 79 77 76 77 78 78 79 78 81 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 42 41 41 39 38 37 34 31 29 28 25 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 58 59 54 58 63 60 55 48 19 -16 -44 N/A 200 MB DIV -26 -27 -11 -1 -4 -15 -5 -23 -12 -13 -4 -35 N/A LAND (KM) 915 959 1010 1054 1104 1238 1369 1479 1561 1653 1736 1875 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.0 22.2 22.5 22.8 23.3 23.7 24.1 24.4 24.9 25.3 25.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.1 122.0 122.9 123.7 124.5 126.3 127.9 129.7 131.4 133.3 134.8 136.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -19. -21. -23. -23. -22. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 1. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -18. -18. -16. -14. -14. -11. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -22. -30. -42. -49. -54. -57. -58. -62. -65. -62. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -14. -21. -28. -40. -48. -55. -58. -58. -59. -62. -59. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP072008 FAUSTO 07/22/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072008 FAUSTO 07/22/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY