* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/22/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 62 64 69 71 71 69 65 61 57 53 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 62 64 69 71 71 69 65 61 57 53 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 57 58 60 61 61 60 58 56 54 52 48 SHEAR (KTS) 11 9 7 6 5 9 9 14 10 15 17 18 14 SHEAR DIR 52 59 82 90 87 117 117 124 108 112 101 104 77 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 139 139 136 135 136 136 135 134 132 131 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 75 72 72 72 68 64 66 62 62 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -15 -15 -25 -17 -14 -3 11 10 17 10 3 -4 200 MB DIV 68 62 53 32 25 58 60 65 30 44 22 77 25 LAND (KM) 578 635 690 757 831 975 1046 1126 1217 1308 1393 1502 1668 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.8 108.9 109.9 110.9 112.7 114.5 116.0 117.3 118.6 119.9 121.6 123.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 15. 20. 23. 23. 21. 17. 13. 8. 4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 14. 19. 21. 21. 19. 15. 11. 7. 3. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/22/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/22/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY