* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTOBAL AL032008 07/23/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 44 40 35 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 48 44 40 35 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 47 44 40 37 32 29 28 28 30 31 32 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 25 32 40 39 37 32 27 35 32 33 30 32 N/A SHEAR DIR 246 243 251 246 253 263 272 263 259 258 275 306 N/A SST (C) 17.8 16.5 14.6 14.2 13.7 20.0 21.9 23.1 22.5 21.4 19.7 17.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 78 74 71 71 70 82 89 94 91 86 81 77 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 73 70 68 68 67 75 80 83 80 77 74 71 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -55.6 -55.6 -55.8 -56.6 -56.7 -55.5 -55.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 2 2 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 51 51 47 40 37 33 37 34 28 30 43 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 11 9 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -8 -25 -59 -76 -80 -54 -36 -21 0 29 77 N/A 200 MB DIV 8 0 -11 2 -42 -24 -35 -8 -27 -16 -2 -7 N/A LAND (KM) 212 233 181 172 274 728 1172 1541 1802 1669 1347 1027 N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.3 44.3 45.2 45.2 45.1 43.5 41.4 40.1 40.1 40.9 43.1 45.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.7 58.3 55.8 53.1 50.4 45.0 40.4 36.3 32.7 29.1 25.7 21.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 20 19 19 20 20 18 15 14 15 18 19 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 30 CX,CY: 26/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -19. -19. -18. -18. -19. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -21. -22. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -17. -26. -31. -37. -40. -42. -44. -47. -52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -6. -10. -15. -23. -29. -36. -42. -46. -48. -50. -55. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/23/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032008 CRISTOBAL 07/23/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY