* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DOLLY AL042008 07/23/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 73 76 77 79 77 74 69 63 60 55 53 V (KT) LAND 65 69 73 64 52 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 71 64 51 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 3 1 2 8 11 19 12 23 19 21 N/A SHEAR DIR 215 279 304 72 295 52 343 13 331 17 11 50 N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.5 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 138 132 129 129 135 141 144 144 144 145 147 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 121 115 112 112 117 121 123 119 119 121 122 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -50.7 -51.9 -51.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 10 14 11 16 10 14 9 13 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 61 68 69 68 69 69 69 67 60 59 54 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 17 16 13 14 11 10 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 18 23 39 38 47 35 14 11 -25 -16 -37 N/A 200 MB DIV 44 36 14 25 28 -2 38 -16 45 10 24 -11 N/A LAND (KM) 178 105 41 -16 -73 -242 -366 -495 -482 -482 -460 -445 N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.4 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.7 96.3 96.8 97.4 98.0 99.7 101.0 102.4 102.7 102.8 103.2 103.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 7 6 4 1 1 1 1 N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 31 6 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -5. -6. -10. -12. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 10. 12. 12. 9. 6. 1. -2. -7. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 12. 14. 12. 9. 4. -2. -5. -10. -12. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042008 DOLLY 07/23/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042008 DOLLY 07/23/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY