* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/23/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 66 68 73 74 74 69 65 59 56 51 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 66 68 73 74 74 69 65 59 56 51 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 58 60 60 60 60 59 58 55 53 51 48 SHEAR (KTS) 7 8 8 6 7 7 14 12 16 15 20 18 12 SHEAR DIR 52 68 73 97 102 118 110 120 103 93 79 101 92 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 139 138 138 138 139 139 138 137 134 132 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 76 78 76 73 73 73 70 67 64 65 62 62 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 11 10 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -10 -19 -17 -8 1 14 12 9 6 3 6 -2 200 MB DIV 57 51 39 31 43 32 67 48 40 24 36 54 40 LAND (KM) 630 683 747 810 878 1011 1081 1156 1240 1341 1445 1548 1649 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.9 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.7 109.6 110.5 111.3 112.7 113.9 115.5 117.1 118.6 119.9 121.5 123.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 18. 18. 14. 10. 5. 0. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 13. 18. 19. 19. 14. 10. 4. 1. -4. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/23/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/23/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY