* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DOLLY AL042008 07/23/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 77 79 80 82 78 73 70 66 61 58 56 V (KT) LAND 70 74 63 50 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 64 51 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 3 3 1 6 9 6 17 15 15 19 25 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 311 346 295 339 19 360 7 342 27 29 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 130 130 133 139 142 143 144 146 148 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 114 112 113 115 120 121 119 119 122 122 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -52.3 -52.4 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 11 14 12 13 13 13 11 11 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 68 69 67 65 67 65 68 64 59 51 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 16 13 13 13 10 7 5 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 23 36 44 45 48 29 6 -6 -3 -22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 7 28 25 7 42 3 13 43 21 21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 105 41 -18 -91 -163 -308 -426 -461 -466 -504 -505 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.3 96.9 97.4 98.2 98.9 100.4 101.6 102.0 102.1 102.5 102.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 6 4 2 1 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 7 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 8. 9. 12. 9. 4. 2. -1. -6. -9. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 8. 3. 0. -4. -9. -12. -14. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042008 DOLLY 07/23/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.3 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042008 DOLLY 07/23/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY