* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/23/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 59 61 61 60 58 53 49 42 40 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 58 59 61 61 60 58 53 49 42 40 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 58 59 59 59 58 57 56 53 50 46 42 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 8 7 7 6 12 9 15 21 22 16 14 SHEAR DIR 53 85 103 82 95 95 97 84 73 78 94 95 63 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 137 136 135 135 135 136 134 132 131 129 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 80 77 73 70 71 67 69 64 63 58 63 55 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 11 9 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -20 -24 -19 -9 -9 -2 -5 -7 -15 -15 -28 -21 200 MB DIV 47 31 22 44 34 34 21 6 0 -30 10 4 35 LAND (KM) 625 682 744 804 867 964 1021 1102 1198 1306 1378 1497 1660 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.2 110.0 110.8 111.5 113.0 114.4 115.9 117.4 118.9 120.1 121.9 124.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 14. 12. 9. 2. -3. -9. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. -2. -6. -13. -15. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/23/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/23/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY