* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DOLLY AL042008 07/23/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 87 88 90 88 83 77 69 62 55 51 49 V (KT) LAND 80 84 62 48 39 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 80 85 64 49 39 30 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 2 2 3 8 7 13 14 12 20 19 28 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 98 292 340 31 338 16 345 13 14 42 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 130 131 136 143 148 147 147 149 148 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 112 112 114 119 124 126 122 122 124 123 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -50.8 -51.8 -51.4 -52.8 -52.4 -53.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 14 11 11 15 10 15 9 12 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 70 66 63 64 65 71 70 64 63 56 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 16 16 17 13 11 6 4 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 33 38 33 37 42 18 4 -21 -1 -12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 34 19 6 22 47 -9 56 24 25 -20 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 51 5 -40 -118 -196 -380 -511 -467 -460 -415 -423 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.7 97.2 97.7 98.5 99.3 101.2 102.7 103.2 103.3 103.8 103.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 8 8 4 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -5. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 8. 7. 2. -3. -9. -14. -22. -25. -28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 8. 10. 8. 3. -3. -11. -18. -25. -29. -31. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042008 DOLLY 07/23/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042008 DOLLY 07/23/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY