* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/23/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 59 61 62 62 57 52 44 38 33 28 V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 59 61 62 62 57 52 44 38 33 28 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 55 55 54 53 51 48 44 40 36 32 SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 4 6 4 12 8 13 17 24 20 18 20 SHEAR DIR 72 105 111 107 93 103 124 79 74 83 88 78 70 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.8 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 136 135 134 132 132 130 130 128 125 120 115 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 76 72 69 70 70 65 62 62 64 60 58 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 12 11 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -20 -16 -6 -7 0 6 1 -1 -10 -5 -7 -7 200 MB DIV 28 22 42 42 30 34 13 0 -8 -5 -10 17 -1 LAND (KM) 660 722 787 839 886 944 1013 1087 1174 1255 1397 1511 1616 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.0 110.8 111.5 112.2 113.8 115.5 116.9 118.3 120.0 122.2 123.9 125.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 9 10 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 4. -1. -10. -16. -21. -25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 2. -3. -11. -17. -22. -27. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/23/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/23/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY