* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DOLLY AL042008 07/23/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 85 87 89 84 77 72 65 58 55 52 49 V (KT) LAND 80 62 47 38 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 80 62 46 37 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 4 3 10 12 10 14 10 17 21 22 16 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 163 241 5 51 46 4 50 21 33 44 89 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 134 138 142 147 148 146 149 149 151 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 116 119 123 125 124 120 122 123 125 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -51.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 14 12 10 12 12 13 11 11 10 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 65 63 63 65 62 67 62 60 57 52 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 18 21 21 14 8 6 4 3 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 40 35 31 46 38 20 -1 -14 -11 -19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 31 12 19 37 -6 30 18 22 7 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 -69 -138 -217 -297 -435 -541 -533 -548 -548 -578 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.3 98.1 98.8 99.6 100.4 101.8 103.0 103.1 103.1 103.3 103.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 6 3 0 1 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -5. -9. -12. -13. -15. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 7. 3. -3. -7. -13. -18. -22. -25. -28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 5. 7. 9. 4. -3. -8. -15. -22. -25. -28. -31. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042008 DOLLY 07/23/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042008 DOLLY 07/23/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY