* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 07/23/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 29 36 40 46 51 54 56 57 54 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 29 36 40 46 51 54 56 57 54 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 28 31 35 38 41 45 49 51 SHEAR (KTS) 5 5 6 9 9 15 12 18 10 15 16 19 19 SHEAR DIR 98 124 171 195 229 218 222 227 233 239 242 258 275 SST (C) 25.3 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.6 27.2 27.6 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 110 107 107 108 109 114 115 117 121 126 131 132 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 103 103 104 105 109 109 109 111 114 116 114 112 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 60 59 60 54 55 48 45 45 42 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 106 105 98 89 77 62 41 15 -14 -33 -51 -67 -67 200 MB DIV -12 -5 12 1 9 4 -3 -4 7 -1 -4 7 -5 LAND (KM) 1364 1514 1665 1827 1990 2040 1955 1963 2036 1992 1957 1955 1964 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.8 19.1 20.6 22.4 24.1 25.8 27.3 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 30.2 31.6 33.0 34.5 36.0 38.9 41.8 44.0 46.2 47.5 48.5 49.3 49.9 STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 14 15 15 15 14 13 12 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 10 15 17 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 21. 26. 31. 34. 36. 37. 37. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 20. 26. 31. 34. 36. 37. 34. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 07/23/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 07/23/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED