* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * DOLLY AL042008 07/24/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 59 59 58 56 55 53 53 51 50 49 47 V (KT) LAND 65 50 41 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 65 50 40 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 2 12 13 9 12 15 4 20 19 28 21 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 290 23 36 37 336 9 319 31 23 36 75 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.5 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 131 138 144 155 159 158 158 161 159 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 109 112 121 127 137 136 130 131 133 131 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.0 -51.5 -50.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.9 -52.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 13 15 10 12 8 10 5 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 66 66 68 70 64 64 66 63 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 17 15 15 12 11 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 28 11 18 30 16 18 -12 0 -3 17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 1 5 30 26 -15 49 9 45 -3 22 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -48 -63 -79 -179 -280 -541 -415 -341 -341 -252 -282 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.5 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.3 26.9 27.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.8 98.0 98.2 99.2 100.2 102.8 105.1 105.8 105.7 106.5 106.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 6 9 10 11 7 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042008 DOLLY 07/24/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042008 DOLLY 07/24/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY