* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/24/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 54 55 56 54 49 41 33 26 21 17 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 54 55 56 54 49 41 33 26 21 17 V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 48 47 47 46 44 42 39 36 32 28 24 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 5 8 10 9 12 17 19 19 17 20 24 SHEAR DIR 135 139 119 109 111 103 71 69 80 73 76 60 77 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.4 24.3 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 133 132 131 129 127 126 122 116 106 95 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 70 72 72 66 65 64 60 61 58 54 48 48 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 8 6 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -15 -17 -14 -9 -1 -5 -4 -2 -9 -18 -19 -7 200 MB DIV 31 36 20 21 21 1 -11 -4 -29 -14 9 8 -2 LAND (KM) 787 846 899 913 934 983 1069 1161 1254 1329 1387 1460 1569 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.6 112.3 113.1 113.8 115.3 117.0 118.8 120.6 122.1 123.4 125.1 127.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 8 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 2. -2. -9. -16. -24. -29. -33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -9. -17. -24. -29. -33. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/24/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/24/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY