* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/24/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 47 48 48 46 40 35 29 24 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 47 48 48 46 40 35 29 24 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 43 42 42 41 39 37 33 30 26 23 SHEAR (KTS) 5 4 6 7 7 8 10 16 20 18 17 21 17 SHEAR DIR 133 129 133 101 80 65 95 75 88 74 82 75 75 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.5 24.5 23.6 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 133 132 131 130 128 125 123 118 107 98 92 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 3 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 71 68 66 66 65 59 61 57 57 49 51 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 12 11 9 8 5 5 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -16 -10 -2 0 -7 0 -12 -5 -23 -15 -21 -7 200 MB DIV 29 30 33 15 14 -12 8 -14 29 14 25 0 -10 LAND (KM) 847 895 915 936 963 1024 1112 1175 1259 1362 1462 1557 1659 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.4 113.1 113.9 114.6 116.1 117.9 119.7 121.4 123.1 124.9 126.7 128.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. -2. -7. -15. -21. -28. -30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -10. -16. -21. -28. -30. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/24/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/24/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY