* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * DOLLY AL042008 07/24/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 37 36 36 37 41 42 46 48 51 52 V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 37 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 14 21 16 3 5 11 17 13 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 35 332 4 28 315 6 347 17 26 56 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 142 147 152 155 160 159 157 152 146 136 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 123 128 133 135 138 132 129 124 119 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 15 13 10 14 7 9 6 12 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 63 65 65 62 58 55 54 52 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 11 10 9 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 8 20 16 4 12 -7 13 -5 21 24 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 7 21 -1 -33 30 15 11 -5 2 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -148 -236 -325 -439 -553 -506 -387 -423 -523 -547 -636 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.8 30.1 30.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.9 99.8 100.6 101.8 102.9 104.9 106.7 106.4 105.5 105.5 104.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 9 4 3 3 2 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -13. -11. -7. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -4. -3. 1. 3. 6. 7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -4. -3. 1. 3. 6. 7. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042008 DOLLY 07/24/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042008 DOLLY 07/24/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY