* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/24/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 46 46 43 36 32 26 21 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 46 46 43 36 32 26 21 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 42 41 39 37 34 31 28 24 20 SHEAR (KTS) 4 6 6 5 3 8 11 18 10 19 16 20 16 SHEAR DIR 149 141 100 83 80 61 59 80 65 53 56 66 52 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.4 24.3 23.8 23.2 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 132 131 130 128 127 124 117 105 100 94 90 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 68 66 66 66 62 59 55 53 49 49 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 12 10 8 7 5 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -13 -7 -6 -9 -5 -9 -14 -3 -7 -16 -21 -11 200 MB DIV 28 27 15 16 -2 -5 -5 -14 -7 3 19 -18 -12 LAND (KM) 878 901 929 950 980 1067 1162 1251 1372 1460 1549 1658 1779 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.2 17.9 18.5 18.7 19.2 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 113.0 113.7 114.6 115.4 117.2 119.1 121.2 123.3 125.1 126.5 128.3 130.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 11 10 8 8 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -10. -18. -24. -29. -31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -13. -19. -24. -30. -32. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/24/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/24/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY