* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/24/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 49 49 44 40 32 27 20 17 16 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 49 49 44 40 32 27 20 17 16 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 45 45 44 41 38 35 31 27 23 20 SHEAR (KTS) 2 4 3 3 9 12 15 14 16 17 18 14 11 SHEAR DIR 114 86 79 39 58 89 69 73 60 65 64 64 53 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.3 25.9 25.2 24.3 23.6 23.3 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 131 130 130 128 127 122 115 105 98 95 95 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 65 68 66 61 65 58 58 50 52 51 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -1 3 1 -5 -3 -13 -5 -19 -9 -41 -31 -47 200 MB DIV 20 8 16 8 8 13 4 23 1 -5 -14 -11 -9 LAND (KM) 876 903 937 969 1009 1105 1190 1298 1430 1520 1596 1722 1887 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.5 114.3 115.2 116.0 117.7 119.8 121.9 123.9 125.7 127.1 128.9 130.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -4. -8. -9. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. -4. -12. -17. -24. -28. -29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. -1. -5. -13. -18. -25. -28. -29. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/24/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/24/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY