* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/25/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 56 56 57 51 44 36 32 27 25 23 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 56 56 57 51 44 36 32 27 25 23 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 53 53 53 51 48 44 39 35 30 27 23 SHEAR (KTS) 3 2 3 8 9 10 16 16 16 15 14 10 8 SHEAR DIR 119 70 68 64 85 61 91 85 98 86 86 90 106 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.6 24.8 24.0 23.6 23.5 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 130 129 127 124 119 111 102 98 97 99 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 72 70 62 64 63 57 55 49 50 44 44 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 10 10 10 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 10 3 -9 -4 -4 -3 2 -1 0 -12 -5 -22 200 MB DIV 8 20 14 0 0 9 2 20 -4 -13 -12 -14 -17 LAND (KM) 875 903 935 982 1038 1140 1220 1358 1518 1649 1763 1918 2100 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.8 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.6 17.2 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.1 114.8 115.8 116.8 118.9 120.8 122.9 125.1 127.2 128.9 130.9 133.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 10 10 10 10 11 9 9 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. -6. -13. -18. -23. -26. -27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 1. -6. -14. -18. -23. -25. -27. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/25/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/25/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY