* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/25/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 62 64 59 54 46 40 35 30 28 25 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 62 64 59 54 46 40 35 30 28 25 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 61 60 58 54 49 44 39 35 31 27 SHEAR (KTS) 1 3 3 5 7 10 11 9 12 11 8 10 7 SHEAR DIR 332 60 136 112 100 104 96 77 107 76 94 79 141 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 25.9 25.2 24.3 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 128 127 126 126 122 115 105 99 98 98 100 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 72 65 69 70 64 62 56 59 50 50 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 12 8 7 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 1 2 10 14 -4 8 0 17 -14 -6 -39 -32 200 MB DIV 17 5 12 17 28 11 25 -8 13 -5 -21 -18 -21 LAND (KM) 888 925 969 1018 1074 1173 1306 1445 1535 1642 1789 1934 2091 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.1 115.0 115.8 116.8 117.7 119.8 122.0 124.0 125.8 127.5 129.3 131.0 132.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -4. -6. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 4. 0. -7. -13. -19. -24. -27. -29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 7. 9. 4. -1. -9. -15. -20. -25. -27. -30. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/25/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/25/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY