* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 07/25/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 39 43 49 53 55 56 56 55 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 39 43 49 53 55 56 56 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 31 34 39 44 50 56 60 62 63 SHEAR (KTS) 25 19 11 9 11 4 8 6 4 12 11 14 11 SHEAR DIR 247 263 264 249 268 245 277 205 260 194 189 201 259 SST (C) 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.4 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 116 118 119 125 131 135 136 136 133 133 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 109 110 110 116 118 119 116 114 109 108 109 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 52 51 51 48 47 45 45 44 40 39 34 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 56 52 50 34 4 -28 -62 -80 -92 -96 -104 -105 200 MB DIV -19 -20 -19 14 2 -2 11 -2 1 3 -11 -16 -13 LAND (KM) 1958 1918 1889 1891 1902 1883 1749 1724 1734 1803 1846 1855 1848 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.3 20.9 22.4 24.1 25.9 27.2 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 41.0 42.3 43.6 44.8 45.9 48.1 50.0 51.1 51.8 51.7 51.4 51.3 51.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 13 11 9 6 4 1 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 5 8 13 19 21 23 19 16 16 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 19. 25. 29. 32. 33. 33. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 18. 24. 28. 30. 31. 31. 30. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 07/25/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 07/25/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY