* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/25/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 71 72 70 64 55 44 34 26 20 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 65 69 71 72 70 64 55 44 34 26 20 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 70 72 72 70 64 57 49 40 32 27 23 19 SHEAR (KTS) 2 4 4 7 10 10 16 20 18 20 19 15 5 SHEAR DIR 132 154 148 102 97 95 86 98 90 100 92 105 115 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.7 24.7 23.5 22.9 23.0 23.3 23.4 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 126 125 124 121 110 98 91 92 95 96 92 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 65 65 69 63 61 57 54 49 44 45 39 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 12 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 6 15 17 4 3 12 27 22 17 12 -4 -13 200 MB DIV 8 10 -5 22 24 4 3 4 -10 -19 -17 -15 -10 LAND (KM) 922 966 1020 1070 1118 1230 1367 1480 1616 1788 1981 2135 2020 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.9 18.6 19.2 19.7 19.7 19.3 19.3 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 115.2 116.2 117.2 118.4 119.5 121.6 123.9 126.1 128.2 130.2 132.1 133.8 135.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 9 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -21. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -8. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 7. 1. -8. -19. -29. -37. -44. -48. -51. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 6. 8. 5. -1. -10. -21. -31. -39. -45. -50. -53. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/25/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/25/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY