* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 07/25/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 42 49 55 59 61 63 64 65 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 42 49 55 59 61 63 64 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 34 39 45 51 57 61 63 66 68 SHEAR (KTS) 17 7 5 5 8 3 8 10 8 12 11 13 8 SHEAR DIR 257 272 249 288 62 213 103 161 163 169 171 205 171 SST (C) 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.6 27.0 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 115 116 117 119 121 125 130 134 137 136 136 137 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 109 110 112 112 115 118 119 118 115 114 118 118 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 -54.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 55 52 51 46 42 40 39 35 35 34 34 38 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 60 66 55 44 7 -15 -40 -57 -64 -87 -76 -70 200 MB DIV -17 -16 16 26 29 10 29 -7 -2 -6 2 2 38 LAND (KM) 1859 1832 1816 1821 1830 1792 1635 1562 1537 1554 1594 1711 1874 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.9 19.4 20.1 20.7 22.1 23.6 25.0 26.3 27.2 28.1 29.0 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 42.2 43.4 44.6 45.8 47.0 49.0 51.0 52.4 53.5 54.0 54.3 53.6 51.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 7 5 5 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 4 8 11 14 20 25 27 25 21 17 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 30. 35. 37. 39. 40. 42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 24. 30. 34. 36. 38. 39. 40. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 07/25/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 07/25/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY