* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/25/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 70 69 62 53 42 28 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 68 70 70 69 62 53 42 28 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 68 67 65 58 51 43 35 29 24 20 18 SHEAR (KTS) 6 7 9 10 11 14 11 15 19 17 16 12 11 SHEAR DIR 141 137 115 108 101 104 76 86 79 88 83 99 89 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.1 23.9 22.9 22.7 22.7 23.1 23.1 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 125 123 122 114 102 91 89 89 93 93 92 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 64 63 68 63 61 63 58 58 52 50 45 44 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 10 9 8 6 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 24 29 20 13 35 35 44 18 24 6 5 0 200 MB DIV 15 0 19 35 27 10 4 12 -8 -9 -12 -17 -9 LAND (KM) 961 1024 1070 1109 1159 1282 1382 1501 1653 1830 2025 2082 1862 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.2 20.2 19.8 19.9 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.4 118.5 119.6 120.6 122.7 124.8 126.9 129.0 131.0 132.9 134.9 137.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -21. -25. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 3. 1. -5. -15. -25. -37. -45. -51. -55. -56. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 5. 4. -3. -12. -23. -37. -45. -51. -54. -55. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/25/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/25/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY