* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 07/26/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 45 52 56 60 63 65 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 45 52 56 60 63 65 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 45 49 54 58 61 SHEAR (KTS) 13 16 15 10 1 2 5 5 9 4 9 1 4 SHEAR DIR 272 258 274 327 256 344 142 171 169 167 128 146 140 SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 116 117 119 121 124 130 134 137 137 136 132 126 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 110 111 113 115 119 120 119 116 115 111 106 106 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.8 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 52 48 44 39 41 38 37 40 38 38 38 35 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 55 43 27 15 -11 -45 -70 -81 -105 -110 -110 -110 200 MB DIV -28 -8 6 25 18 15 10 -1 -3 -4 -22 -2 -23 LAND (KM) 1831 1825 1827 1856 1832 1706 1649 1668 1748 1857 1947 1975 2040 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.7 20.2 21.0 21.8 23.4 25.3 26.8 28.1 28.9 29.3 29.2 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 43.8 44.9 46.0 47.1 48.2 50.2 51.6 52.3 52.3 51.6 50.4 49.1 48.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 12 10 7 5 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 2 5 9 11 14 17 23 26 22 13 15 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. 39. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 07/26/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 07/26/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY