* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/26/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 64 61 55 45 35 23 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 64 61 55 45 35 23 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 64 63 60 58 52 46 39 33 28 24 21 19 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 11 11 11 9 16 18 16 13 13 12 7 SHEAR DIR 163 136 131 115 122 110 89 95 108 111 126 145 163 SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.6 24.6 23.5 22.9 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.0 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 124 123 120 109 98 92 90 92 93 92 92 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 60 61 61 56 54 45 42 39 39 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 10 10 9 7 6 5 3 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 35 29 20 22 37 40 38 33 34 24 25 18 200 MB DIV 14 19 37 37 29 6 0 -1 -12 -21 2 -23 -1 LAND (KM) 1044 1087 1139 1193 1256 1396 1503 1641 1824 2023 2041 1842 1642 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.0 20.0 19.7 19.7 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.7 119.8 120.9 122.0 124.2 126.3 128.5 130.8 133.0 135.3 137.2 139.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -22. -25. -28. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -22. -31. -42. -49. -54. -57. -56. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. -4. -10. -20. -30. -41. -49. -54. -56. -56. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/26/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/26/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY