* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/26/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 58 56 54 47 39 29 22 17 DIS DIS 15 V (KT) LAND 60 59 58 56 54 47 39 29 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 55 53 50 45 40 35 30 26 23 21 19 SHEAR (KTS) 9 11 11 13 14 7 14 17 9 10 9 9 2 SHEAR DIR 148 139 120 125 131 86 81 84 91 67 103 93 119 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.5 24.5 23.7 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.3 23.1 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 122 122 118 108 99 94 94 95 95 93 93 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 65 65 61 61 60 56 60 52 50 46 46 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 7 7 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 21 21 33 31 40 24 32 16 26 11 5 200 MB DIV 25 32 25 27 21 5 22 1 -11 -14 -10 -10 1 LAND (KM) 1085 1133 1189 1261 1338 1462 1572 1706 1874 2047 2095 1886 1666 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.7 120.7 121.8 122.9 124.9 126.8 128.8 130.9 132.9 134.8 136.8 138.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -24. -33. -40. -44. -48. -48. -46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -21. -31. -38. -43. -47. -47. -45. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/26/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/26/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY