* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 07/26/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 40 45 53 56 58 59 64 65 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 40 45 53 56 58 59 64 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 32 37 42 46 49 52 56 60 SHEAR (KTS) 13 10 4 7 3 6 5 9 8 11 10 4 6 SHEAR DIR 258 275 269 276 312 136 200 191 247 241 290 216 265 SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 123 125 126 128 131 131 130 128 128 127 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 114 116 117 117 118 116 112 109 109 107 106 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -55.2 -55.0 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 42 38 36 35 34 33 33 33 34 38 41 43 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 7 8 7 6 7 6 6 3 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 53 34 21 7 1 -30 -56 -69 -93 -104 -104 -104 -140 200 MB DIV 8 12 16 25 20 -7 1 -18 -11 -32 0 -26 -9 LAND (KM) 1684 1686 1665 1618 1580 1402 1280 1198 1156 1135 1110 1103 1078 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.2 22.5 23.7 24.6 25.3 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 46.5 47.7 48.8 49.9 50.9 53.0 54.8 56.3 57.4 58.1 58.7 59.2 59.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 12 11 11 11 10 7 5 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 8 12 13 16 17 19 28 29 26 24 21 19 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 790 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 10. 16. 21. 29. 31. 34. 35. 40. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 9. 15. 20. 28. 31. 33. 34. 40. 40. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 07/26/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 07/26/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY