* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/26/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 41 38 31 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 41 38 31 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 45 41 38 35 31 27 24 21 19 18 17 17 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 15 15 11 12 19 12 1 1 6 5 14 SHEAR DIR 137 110 115 118 128 85 76 102 351 17 301 282 282 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.0 24.0 23.2 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.2 23.1 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 120 118 113 103 94 93 94 95 94 93 93 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 66 63 62 59 59 55 56 48 46 40 38 37 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 6 5 5 3 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 27 29 42 40 42 41 33 36 26 16 8 3 200 MB DIV 36 23 32 30 10 -1 5 -8 -9 -2 -22 -5 -17 LAND (KM) 1139 1201 1269 1342 1417 1518 1640 1790 1960 2151 1969 1760 1539 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.4 19.4 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.9 121.9 123.0 124.0 126.0 128.0 130.0 132.0 134.1 136.0 138.0 140.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -10. -14. -21. -28. -36. -38. -40. -41. -39. -36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -9. -12. -19. -26. -35. -38. -40. -41. -38. -35. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/26/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/26/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY