* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 07/26/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 48 56 61 65 70 73 72 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 48 56 61 65 70 73 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 39 44 50 55 60 64 67 SHEAR (KTS) 6 1 2 6 7 6 3 5 3 6 1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 271 280 327 60 90 189 137 225 178 294 38 313 39 SST (C) 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 121 123 124 126 127 131 132 131 129 125 124 123 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 116 116 118 118 119 118 115 110 106 104 103 101 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 37 35 32 33 31 29 32 37 38 38 40 42 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 26 15 5 -18 -61 -71 -80 -94 -94 -103 -132 -156 200 MB DIV 15 28 36 21 3 5 -1 6 -27 -4 -2 -10 -10 LAND (KM) 1666 1679 1627 1595 1504 1351 1251 1201 1189 1188 1195 1200 1200 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.9 20.5 21.2 21.9 23.2 24.5 25.5 26.2 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 47.3 48.5 49.6 50.7 51.8 53.8 55.6 57.0 57.9 58.4 58.7 58.9 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 11 9 7 4 3 1 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 15 17 16 21 29 26 22 18 15 13 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 20. 20. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 31. 36. 40. 44. 48. 49. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 23. 31. 36. 40. 45. 48. 47. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 07/26/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 07/26/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY