* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/26/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 33 30 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 33 30 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 36 33 31 27 24 21 19 18 16 15 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 15 15 10 5 14 11 3 11 4 10 16 26 SHEAR DIR 94 109 126 137 90 73 80 323 351 312 296 265 259 SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.8 23.9 23.3 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.3 23.1 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 118 115 111 101 95 94 94 95 94 94 95 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 63 62 58 58 55 58 51 46 43 41 39 38 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 29 39 39 40 40 24 38 26 24 5 10 -11 200 MB DIV 22 15 21 14 9 -1 -8 -12 0 -16 -3 -1 -14 LAND (KM) 1205 1268 1336 1415 1480 1595 1713 1874 2035 2159 2034 1814 1540 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.4 19.0 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.2 19.2 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 120.8 121.8 122.8 123.8 124.8 126.8 128.8 130.9 132.7 134.2 135.4 137.5 140.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 8 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -10. -9. -9. -7. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -20. -27. -30. -32. -33. -34. -32. -32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -8. -12. -15. -21. -29. -33. -35. -34. -34. -33. -32. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/26/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/26/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY