* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 07/27/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 55 60 63 68 71 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 55 60 63 68 71 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 39 43 48 52 57 61 65 SHEAR (KTS) 3 4 4 8 10 4 8 8 12 11 3 15 18 SHEAR DIR 238 288 45 90 142 193 212 238 249 336 289 290 305 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 124 125 126 127 130 134 134 134 136 137 139 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 116 117 118 118 119 120 119 117 118 119 120 122 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -55.2 -55.3 -55.6 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 35 32 30 26 27 24 27 30 32 36 40 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 24 15 -9 -30 -57 -76 -75 -82 -93 -87 -97 -123 200 MB DIV 10 25 10 14 1 7 -11 -3 -30 4 -25 23 -15 LAND (KM) 1602 1578 1527 1486 1389 1210 1064 964 897 837 807 777 805 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.3 22.3 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.5 24.8 25.0 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 48.3 49.4 50.5 51.7 52.8 54.9 56.9 58.5 59.9 61.1 62.1 63.2 64.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 11 9 7 6 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 17 18 20 25 33 28 27 34 36 33 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 13. 14. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 23. 30. 34. 38. 43. 46. 47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 30. 35. 38. 43. 46. 44. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 07/27/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.1/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 07/27/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY