* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/27/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 40 38 33 29 26 24 24 23 23 22 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 40 38 33 29 26 24 24 23 23 22 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 41 39 37 34 30 28 26 25 24 22 20 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 9 5 9 13 6 8 5 10 11 16 23 SHEAR DIR 98 117 130 101 77 86 109 333 13 269 272 275 270 SST (C) 26.1 25.8 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.0 23.5 23.7 23.9 23.8 23.3 23.3 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 117 113 110 103 97 98 101 101 95 94 94 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 61 61 57 58 59 52 49 45 40 37 34 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 42 41 37 39 34 28 26 13 7 0 -3 -20 200 MB DIV 22 16 14 6 13 -11 -11 -17 -5 -18 -7 -11 -21 LAND (KM) 1336 1417 1504 1556 1599 1672 1831 1975 2112 2108 1831 1654 1540 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.5 18.1 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.2 18.5 18.4 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 122.0 123.2 124.3 125.1 125.9 127.5 129.8 131.4 132.9 134.8 137.4 139.1 140.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 8 8 10 9 8 8 10 10 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -15. -18. -19. -20. -22. -22. -24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -16. -19. -21. -21. -22. -22. -23. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/27/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/27/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY