* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/27/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS 16 19 19 20 V (KT) LAND 30 26 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 10 5 10 12 9 1 8 5 10 12 23 36 SHEAR DIR 117 122 108 75 86 92 56 349 319 311 261 269 269 SST (C) 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.0 24.8 24.3 24.1 24.1 24.1 23.9 23.6 23.6 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 116 113 111 105 102 102 103 102 99 99 102 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 61 58 58 59 50 51 46 45 39 36 29 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 40 34 38 41 33 35 10 8 -3 2 -11 -4 200 MB DIV 29 17 -1 7 19 -11 -10 -7 -10 -3 -13 -19 -28 LAND (KM) 1423 1510 1601 1659 1719 1850 1958 2055 2155 2081 1799 1559 1298 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.8 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 123.0 124.1 125.2 126.2 127.1 129.0 130.5 131.8 133.1 135.1 137.8 140.1 142.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 8 11 12 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -12. -11. -11. -9. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -10. -14. -15. -16. -15. -14. -14. -13. -13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -7. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -17. -14. -11. -11. -10. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/27/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/27/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY