* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * GENEVIEVE EP082008 07/27/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 17 20 20 22 V (KT) LAND 25 22 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 6 10 14 13 3 7 5 8 5 14 21 33 SHEAR DIR 102 89 70 80 82 125 325 348 282 258 265 264 265 SST (C) 25.5 25.2 24.9 24.6 24.3 24.1 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 119 115 112 109 105 102 101 102 101 98 97 97 100 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 59 61 59 60 51 54 48 45 39 35 31 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 33 31 33 34 21 24 6 10 4 8 -9 -6 200 MB DIV 23 7 3 12 -2 -5 -11 -11 -11 -13 -23 -25 -47 LAND (KM) 1532 1610 1675 1737 1803 1918 2022 2149 2120 1931 1744 1545 1344 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.0 18.0 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 124.4 125.5 126.5 127.5 128.5 130.1 131.5 133.1 134.7 136.5 138.3 140.2 142.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -9. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -9. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. -7. -7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. 1. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -8. -5. -4. -3. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/27/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082008 GENEVIEVE 07/27/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY