* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NONAME CP852008 07/29/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 40 41 50 51 49 49 58 58 61 59 60 53 57 SHEAR DIR 257 264 267 264 260 244 239 243 247 249 248 251 259 SST (C) 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 110 112 112 114 114 114 114 116 118 121 118 117 114 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -55.0 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 19 17 19 19 22 22 21 26 25 28 30 33 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -17 -20 -13 2 12 13 1 -2 -15 -35 -50 -69 200 MB DIV -41 -34 -43 -35 -14 -2 18 22 -7 -14 8 16 11 LAND (KM) 734 625 517 435 355 261 231 184 136 212 381 505 616 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.2 19.0 18.9 18.8 18.6 18.3 18.5 19.4 20.8 22.5 23.9 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 147.8 148.9 149.9 150.7 151.5 152.5 153.0 153.4 153.5 153.3 152.7 152.4 152.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 8 6 4 2 3 6 8 8 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 2.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -12. -23. -36. -45. -51. -55. -60. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -9. -17. -27. -36. -41. -44. -45. -47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 0. -6. -15. -26. -36. -40. -40. -41. -43. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP852008 NONAME 07/29/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP852008 NONAME 07/29/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY